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The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about transformative changes in human activity-travel patterns. These lifestyle changes were naturally accompanied by and associated with changes in transportation mode use and work modalities. In the United States, most transit agencies are still grappling with lower ridership levels, thus signifying the onset of a new normal for the future of transit. This paper addresses this challenge using a novel panel survey data set collected from a representative sample of individuals across the United States. The study involved the estimation of a panel multinomial probit model of mode choice to capture both socio-economic effects and period (pre-, during-, and post-COVID) effects that contribute to changes in mode choice. This paper provides rich insights into the evolution of commute mode use as a result of the pandemic, with a particular focus on public transit. Through a rigorous modeling approach, this paper provides a deep understanding of how transit use has evolved, how it is likely to evolve into the future, and the socio-economic and demographic characteristics that affect the evolution (and expected future use) of public transit. Results suggest that transit patronage is likely to remain depressed by about 30% for the foreseeable future, in the absence of substantial changes in service configurations. This study also shows that minority groups and those living in higher density regions are more likely to exhibit a return to transit use in the post-pandemic period. 

This study focuses on the long-term impacts of COVID-19 on telecommuting behavior. We seek to study the future of telecommuting, in the post-pandemic era, by capturing the evolution of observed behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, we implemented a comprehensive multi-wave nationwide panel survey (the Future Survey) in the U.S. throughout 2020 and 2021. A panel Generalized Structural Equation Model (GSEM) was used to investigate the effects of two perceptual factors on telecommuting behavior: (1) perceived risk of COVID-19; and (2) perceived telecommuting productivity. The findings of this study reveal significant and positive impacts of productivity and COVID-risk perception on telecommuting behavior. Moreover, the findings indicate a potential shift in preferences toward telecommuting in the post-pandemic era for millennials, employees with long commute times, high-income, and highly educated employees. Overall, a potential increase in telecommuting frequency is expected in the post-pandemic era, with differences across socio-economic groups.